India’s rainy season is very critical for Asia’s 3rd biggest economy, will probably be a robust as well as healthy, this year. There is no surprise by El Nino occurrence, as stated by the topmost official of India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Monsoon rains are the life force for India’s agriculture over which around $2.6 trillion economies depend. It is expected to arrive on the southern part of Kerala by 1st June. And depart from the desert of Rajasthan by September.

India’s approximately, 263 million agriculturalists wait for the monsoon rains to plant certain yields for instance cane, rice, corn, cotton & soybean since almost half of the country’s agricultural has got irrigation scarcity. Agricultural production makes up just not more than 14 % of the Indian economy. However, the sector employs around 1.3 billion people, which is more than half of the country’s population.

Speaking anything about the years’ monsoon pattern will be very early at this point in time. Nevertheless, it is also known that no one can give a prediction as accurate as El Nino,” K.J. Ramesh, director general of the state-run India Meteorological Department.

Abundant monsoon rains possibly will lift up the agriculture as well as will boost the economic growth, also keep the food prices & whole inflation restrained. This might even add pressure over India’s central bank to cut down the interest rates.

On the other hand, greater production might even mean that the farmers keep on getting affected by lower crop prices. It is a key cause for concern in rural parts of India since the past 2 years.

El Nino

A robust El Nino, also marked by the warming of sea surface taking place in the Pacific Ocean, might cause dreadful drought in Southeast Asia, Australia as well as India, although drenching other parts of the world, for instance, the United States Midwest & Brazil in rains.

The arrival of a robust El Nino prompted about the consecutive droughts in 2014 as well as 2015. Only for the 4th time happening over a century, pushing a number of Indian farmers in order to penury/suicide.

The IMD outlines average or standard, rainfall somewhere between 96 % – 104 % of a 50-year average. It is around 89 cm for the complete 4 months rainy season starting mostly from June.

Earlier Record

In addition, rainfall in 2017 & 2018, was recorded as 95 % & 91 % of the long-term average respectively.

The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) phenomenon might also be a positive development, voiced Ramesh.

Additionally, the IOD phenomenon is regarded as the higher temperatures at sea-surface in the Indian Ocean. A constructive IOD produces a barricade in the eastern Indian Ocean, as well as all the southwesterly winds blow, are headed towards the Indian sub-continent, instigating rains in the country.

Weather officials state that a positive IOD has been played a vital role in getting suitable rains towards India in the years 1967, 1977, 1997 & 2006.

The IMD will probably make its 1st official forecast of this year’s monsoon rains by the mid of April.