Research shows that gamblers identified the Leave vote approaching an hour in advance the currency experts in a city are creating an “arbitrage” window where the price difference between the FX and betting market produced over 8% of return on the pound.
From the Cambridge University, economists associated the behaviors of the Betfair betting market and the sterling-dollar exchange rate from closing the polls, when the odds of 11 to 1 being offered on Brexit.
Researchers claim that both the markets were “ineffective informational” slow to respond despite the data available and the flooding from vote counts across the globe. This intended there was money to be made trading earlier on the market.
The change in efficiency within the two markets generated an hour on selling and hedging the result of a survey on Betfair have made over 9 cents of earnings per pound sterling a substantial “enlarged return”, in theory, have seen incisive traders making millions.
Researchers claim the outcomes support the sign that gambling or the alleged “prediction markets”, provides superior forecasts of election outcomes than either polls or experts.
Lead author of the study published in the International Journal of Forecasting, Dr. Tom Auld commented that “Punters trading on Betfair are a different group of people to those dealing in FX for international finance. It looks like the gamblers had a better sense that Leave could win, or that it could at least go either way”.
“The findings describe that participants in both the markets have faced the behavioral unfairness as results unfolded. Primarily, both gamblers and traders cannot believe that the UK was voting to consent to the EU, but this distress remained for longer in a city”.
Auld claimed that “According to theories such as the ‘efficient market hypothesis’, the markets discount all publicly available information, so you cannot get an edge on the market with data already out there”.
“However, using data publicly available at the time we show that the financial markets were inefficient, and should have predicted Brexit possibly over two hours before they did.”
Auld even said “If there is a second referendum, the vote should be better understood by markets in line with a theoretical concept called the adaptive markets hypothesis. Studies such as ours will mean that market participants will be primed to profit from any opportunities and inefficiencies”.
Auld described that “Prediction markets such as betting exchanges are an ‘incentive compatible’ way to elicit the private opinions of participants, as people are putting their money where their mouth is, whereas what they tell pollsters can be cheap talk”.
“Prediction markets, in theory, be used to help value or price financial assets during events such as major votes. This is an area will focus on for future research.”